Here's why the battle for Mosul could 'mark the beginning of the end' for ISIS

The battle for ISIS’ stronghold in Iraq has kicked off this week.

But if it’s not handled well, the long-term consequences could be severe.

“If handled successfully, Mosul could mark the beginning of the end of the Islamic State; if handled poorly, it could be yet another pause before an inevitable resurgence of terror,” said an online intelligence briefing from The Soufan Group, a strategic security firm.

Also read: Everything ISIS has lost at Mosul . . . so far

The Iraqi Security Forces don’t have enough troops to retake and hold Mosul and the surrounding area without help. So other factions — including Kurdish forces and Shia militias (known as Popular Mobilization Units) backed by Iran. If left unchecked, these other factions could use the battle for Mosul to further their own agendas.

Shia militias have been accused of reprisal killings, torture, and kidnappings when they have assisted in liberating other areas from ISIS. And Kurdish forces have been known to displace Sunni Arabs from their homes as they take control of areas they help liberate from ISIS. Turkey is also participating in Mosul operations.

ISIS fighters in Iraq | Photo via Flickr

ISIS fighters in Iraq | Photo via Flickr

“The military challenges of removing an entrenched foe in an urban warfare environment, while simultaneously protecting as many as one million civilians caught in the cross fire would be daunting in the best of circumstances,” said The Soufan Group intelligence briefing. “But lacking unified combatants and commands, Iraqi military considerations must always include every level of sectarian and ethnic concerns that could turn a military victory into a strategic defeat.”

In short, even if Iraqi forces manage to win the battle against ISIS in Mosul, they’re in danger of losing the war if there isn’t a solid plan in place to govern effectively and inclusively after ISIS leaves.

“Given the sheer size of Mosul — and its experience of savage rule at the hands of the Islamic State—revenge killing will likely be an issue in the days and months ahead,” said The Soufan Group intelligence briefing.

“The level of atrocities and outrages perpetrated against minority communities such as the Yazidi and Christians, as well as to the population at large, rank among the worst war crimes in recent history. A massive effort will be required to begin to heal what is a truly fractured city and society.”

A local Mosul historian who blogs about life in the city under the pseudonym Mosul Eye explained the stakes of the ongoing battle in a statement posted to Twitter on Thursday.

“The people of Mosul cannot trust what will happen during and after the liberation, and our concerns grow bigger every day,” the historian wrote. “The upcoming dangers are no less than ISIL. There are many factions who are trying to divide and to tear down our city, and turning it into parts where each part would be given to an ethnicity group, separating it from the rest.”

He continued: “History tells [us] that Mosul has always built its civilization upon an ethnically and religiously diversified population. It is impossible to imagine Mosul without its rich and diversified heritage, culture, history, and ethnicity.”

Mosul Eye recommended that the city be placed under international trusteeship with joint supervision from the Iraqi government and the US.

“We, the civilized people of Mosul, don’t want to hand our city over, after liberation, to the tribes or to the Kurds, or the Popular Mobilization Units, or any other faction that is out of the Iraqi government,” he wrote on Twitter. “We also believe that the Iraqi government alone is not capable of managing Mosul after liberation.”

TOP ARTICLES
This is how the Army Corps of Engineers is helping Puerto Rico

The Army Corps of Engineers is working to restore power to the island of Puerto Rico after four major hurricanes devastated these parts of the US.

This Marine is more operator than you'll ever be

One Marine isn't taking his life changing injury sitting down. In fact: he's running. Follow Marine Rob Jones as he runs 31 marathons in 31 days.

This is the agenda for Mattis' Indo-Asia-Pacific tour

Secretary of Defense Mattis is touring the Indo-Asia Pacific region to strengthen ties with ally countries and underscore our commitment to each of them.

This is the reason Russian and Western tactics are changing

Russia might be stepping up its War Games game, but the United States isn't having any issues keeping up. Even their Krasnodar can't get past us.

Here are the top conspiracy theories surrounding Kennedy assassination

Ahead of the release of 3,100 documents pertaining to the Kennedy assassination, here the top assassination conspiracy theories people are talking about.

Air Force says no plan to recall retired pilots

The Air Force says it has no intentions of recalling retired pilots to address personnel shortages, though it appreciates the ability to do it if it wants to.

Here is how Burke-class destroyers will be able to zap incoming missiles

Burke-class destroyers, already packing a formidable punch, could add lasers, improving capabilities against UAVs, missiles, and even piloted aircraft.

11 'totally real' things you should send your boot to find

Sending the FNG out to find things isn't malicious. It may look like hazing — but you're teaching them a little bit more about the unit. Isn't that nice?

This is the new version of the pup tent

This is not your grandfather's pup tent. Litefighter has developed a complete shelter that troops can carry, weighing in just over four pounds.

This is why Saddam Hussein's fedayeen troops wore Darth Vader helmets

Wondering why Saddam's personal militia wore all-black suits and ski masks in the middle of the desert all year 'round? It was to match their helmets.