Articles

Here's why the battle for Mosul could 'mark the beginning of the end' for ISIS

The battle for ISIS' stronghold in Iraq has kicked off this week.


But if it's not handled well, the long-term consequences could be severe.

"If handled successfully, Mosul could mark the beginning of the end of the Islamic State; if handled poorly, it could be yet another pause before an inevitable resurgence of terror," said an online intelligence briefing from The Soufan Group, a strategic security firm.

Also read: Everything ISIS has lost at Mosul . . . so far

The Iraqi Security Forces don't have enough troops to retake and hold Mosul and the surrounding area without help. So other factions — including Kurdish forces and Shia militias (known as Popular Mobilization Units) backed by Iran. If left unchecked, these other factions could use the battle for Mosul to further their own agendas.

Shia militias have been accused of reprisal killings, torture, and kidnappings when they have assisted in liberating other areas from ISIS. And Kurdish forces have been known to displace Sunni Arabs from their homes as they take control of areas they help liberate from ISIS. Turkey is also participating in Mosul operations.

ISIS fighters in Iraq | Photo via Flickr

"The military challenges of removing an entrenched foe in an urban warfare environment, while simultaneously protecting as many as one million civilians caught in the cross fire would be daunting in the best of circumstances," said The Soufan Group intelligence briefing. "But lacking unified combatants and commands, Iraqi military considerations must always include every level of sectarian and ethnic concerns that could turn a military victory into a strategic defeat."

In short, even if Iraqi forces manage to win the battle against ISIS in Mosul, they're in danger of losing the war if there isn't a solid plan in place to govern effectively and inclusively after ISIS leaves.

"Given the sheer size of Mosul — and its experience of savage rule at the hands of the Islamic State—revenge killing will likely be an issue in the days and months ahead," said The Soufan Group intelligence briefing.

"The level of atrocities and outrages perpetrated against minority communities such as the Yazidi and Christians, as well as to the population at large, rank among the worst war crimes in recent history. A massive effort will be required to begin to heal what is a truly fractured city and society."

A local Mosul historian who blogs about life in the city under the pseudonym Mosul Eye explained the stakes of the ongoing battle in a statement posted to Twitter on Thursday.

"The people of Mosul cannot trust what will happen during and after the liberation, and our concerns grow bigger every day," the historian wrote. "The upcoming dangers are no less than ISIL. There are many factions who are trying to divide and to tear down our city, and turning it into parts where each part would be given to an ethnicity group, separating it from the rest."

He continued: "History tells [us] that Mosul has always built its civilization upon an ethnically and religiously diversified population. It is impossible to imagine Mosul without its rich and diversified heritage, culture, history, and ethnicity."

Mosul Eye recommended that the city be placed under international trusteeship with joint supervision from the Iraqi government and the US.

"We, the civilized people of Mosul, don't want to hand our city over, after liberation, to the tribes or to the Kurds, or the Popular Mobilization Units, or any other faction that is out of the Iraqi government," he wrote on Twitter. "We also believe that the Iraqi government alone is not capable of managing Mosul after liberation."

Military Life

Why death iconography is a beloved part of military culture

Take a look at the naming convention of any combat arms battalion. Chances are that alpha company is "Assassins," bravo company is "Barbarians," and, because there's no clever, hardcore, historical fighter that starts with 'C,' charlie company will be "Reapers" or something.

Keep reading... Show less
Articles

How R. Lee Ermey's Hollywood break is an inspiration to us all

While there have been many outstanding actors and celebrities who have raised their right hand, there has never been a veteran who could finger point his way to the top of Hollywood stardom quite like the late great Gunnery Sergeant R. Lee Ermey.

Keep reading... Show less
GEAR & TECH

Why the Navy might buy new frigates from France or Italy

When the last of the Oliver Hazard Perry-class guided-missile frigates (FFGs) retired in 2015, the littoral combat ship (LCS) was expected to pick up the slack. Well, between mechanical failures and the fact that the LCS is under-armed, that hasn't happened.

As a result, the Navy has cut the LCS program down to 40 vessels and is now looking for a new generation of frigates. Two contenders for the FFG(X) program have surfaced, one from Lockheed based on the Freedom-class LCS and one from Spain based on the Álvaro de Bazán-class guided-missile frigates. There's a third contender, however, and it's also from Europe, based on the Franco-Italian FREMM.

Keep reading... Show less

How the US is falling behind China in this high-tech arms race

Mike Griffin, the undersecretary of defense for research and engineering, made some worrying admissions about China's growing military capabilities, and the US' decline in technological advances.

"Our adversaries have taken advantage of what I have referred to as a holiday for the United States," Griffin said April 18, 2018, referring to the West's victory over its communist rivals in the Cold War. The Pentagon official was speaking at a hearing for the Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities.

Keep reading... Show less
History

The fascinating origin of a favorite gloating phrase

You've just proven yourself to the doubters and in your moment of triumph you turn and ask just one question: "How do you like them apples?" This phrase has been used for decades and has been made popular by films like Good Will Hunting and Rio Bravo, but where does it come from?

While many claim that the origin of this phrase is unknown, others claim that it comes straight from the trenches of World War I.

Keep reading... Show less
History

Macron will bring a 'Devil Dog' Marines tribute to the White House

French President Emmanuel Macron said April 22, 2018, that he is bringing a living tribute to "Devil Dog" Marines who fell in the World War I battle of Belleau Wood to the White House as a symbol of the two nations' enduring ties.

The oak sapling from the battle site will be presented to President Donald Trump in hopes that it will be planted in the White House garden, Macron said in an interview on the "Fox News Sunday" program from the Elysee Palace in Paris.

Keep reading... Show less
GEAR & TECH

6 of the most notable pre-M16 military guns

Throughout history, the U.S. Military has used a wide variety of guns to win its battles. Prior to the M16, there were several weapons used across the service throughout some of the most devastating wars the world has ever seen.

Here are some of those weapons:

Keep reading... Show less
International

China and the US could end up in a war – here's what would happen

It's unlikely that the U.S.-China trade dispute is going to escalate to a full-scale war any time soon — but it's not impossible. Neither side is inclined to go to war with the other, but a war of that scale is what both plan to fight. All it would take is one bungled crisis, one itchy trigger finger, one malfunctioning automated defense system and the entire region could become a war zone.

Keep reading... Show less