Articles

The US can survive a nuclear North Korea — but a first strike could start World War III

Despite President Donald Trump's bold proclamation that a North Korean nuclear missile capable of hitting the US "won't happen," Kim Jong Un appears to be on his way — faster than many had thought — to an intercontinental ballistic missile that could flatten Washington.


But a nuclear-armed North Korea wouldn't be the end of the world, according to some senior military officials.

"We can deter them," retired Adm. Dennis Blair, the former head of US Pacific Command, said of North Korea at a National Committee for US-China Relations event. "They may be developing 10 to 15 nuclear weapons. We have 2,000. They can do a lot of damage to the U.S., but there won't be any North Korea left in the event of a nuclear exchange. That's not a good regime survival strategy, and even Kim Jong Un would understand that."

The U.S. has to live with the fact that Russia, the world's second-greatest nuclear power, openly opposes Washington's foreign policy in nearly every dimension, and that Pakistan, a country rife with corruption and Islamist groups gaining traction within and around its borders, has nuclear weapons.

A senior Defense Department official with expertise in nuclear strategy told Business Insider that while the US has said it cannot and will not accept a North Korea armed with a nuclear intercontinental ballistic missile, that amounted more to an opening position in an ongoing negotiation than an intention to use military force to stop it.

F/A-18 Hornet and Super Hornets from the USS Carl Vinson's Carrier Air Wing fly over the carrier strike group flanked by two South Korean destroyers on May 3. US Navy video by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Matt Brown.

"You never undermine your official position going in," the official told Business Insider. "You're never going to voluntarily back away from that. You're going to actively work to make sure they don't get" an ICBM.

"The North Koreans having nukes is a bad thing, and we don't want it," the official said. "But if we lose that one, we survive it."

Despite bluster on both sides — whether posturing that the US may attack to cripple North Korea's nuclear program or that North Korea would use its nuclear weapons on the US or allies — the defense official and other experts Business Insider contacted said they found both cases extremely unlikely and undesirable.

"It's always in the US's favor to be somewhat ambiguous about what they will or won't do," said Melissa Hanham, a senior research associate in the East Asia Nonproliferation Program. "That's because there's no good thing to do. They have to convince South Korean allies and North Korean adversaries that they'll do anything to protect Seoul, even all-out nuclear war.

 

There's a real risk that, even without nuclear weapons, Seoul would fall in a conflict with North Korea. Photo from Stratfor

"But those experienced military leaders know. They've run the models. They've run the numbers," Hanham said. There's just no way to fight North Korea "without chaos and enormous death and damage to the world."

Because US nuclear weapons would have to fly over China or Russia and most likely would spread deadly fallout in South Korea or as far as Japan, nuclear conflict with North Korea would be likely to bring about World War III — a great power war between nuclear states that the world has developed nuclear weapons to avoid.

To an extent, the US already lives with and deters a nuclear North Korea daily. Hanham said that although it hadn't been verified, North Korea most likely had a deliverable nuclear weapon that could hit the 10 million civilians in Seoul or the 25,000 permanent US troops stationed in South Korea.

So North Korea will continue on its path toward a nuclear weapon that could hit anywhere in the US — but like Russia, China, and Pakistan, it probably wouldn't use it.

GEAR & TECH
Matthew Cox

The Marines will get a new wheeled amphibious combat vehicle

The Marine Corps announced on June 20, 2018, that BAE Systems will make the service's brand-new amphibious combat vehicle, planned to replace aging tracked amphibious assault vehicles that have been in service since the 1970s.

After almost three years of testing, the Corps announced it will award several contract options, worth up to $198 million, to BAE to build 30 low-rate production ACV 1.1 vehicles, John Garner, Program Executive Officer for Land Systems Marine Corps, told defense reporters.

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This Microsoft training fast tracks veterans into sweet tech careers

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Injuries sustained during mine-resistant vehicle training had led to surgeries and functional recovery and it became clear Brown would no longer be able to operate at the level she expected of herself as a Marine.

Like many of the 200,000 service members exiting the military each year, Brown knew her military training could make her a valuable asset as an employee, but she was unsure of how her skills might specifically translate to employment in the civilian world.

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This band hires vets — especially when they go on tour

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Christopher Woody

B-1 bombers fly again but no one knows what went wrong

Air Force Global Strike Command said on June 19, 2018, that its B-1 bombers would return to flight operations in late June 2018, after the bomber fleet was ordered to take a safety stand down on June 7, 2018.

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On Oct. 14, 1947, then-Capt. Chuck Yeager flew the Bell X-1 rocket plane at Mach 1 and broke the sound barrier. Since then, the Air Force has continually stretched and pushed the limits of speed – finding new ways to make its aircraft fly faster and farther.

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The story of the slave who survived the Alamo

The attack on the Alamo in 1836 was not a 13-day siege and slaughter as often portrayed in film and television. Don't get me wrong – the defenders of the mission-turned-fortress were killed en masse as Mexican troops stormed the structure. It's just that not everyone inside the Alamo died that day.

Maybe standing in the open wearing the brightest clothes isn't the best idea.

That's how we came to know of Joe — just Joe, any other names he had are lost to history now. Joe was the slave of William B. Travis, the commander of the Alamo during Mexican dictator Antonio Lopez de Santa Anna's siege of the Texian fort. But no one knows exactly how Joe got there. No matter how he ended up there, he was one of many slaves and free blacks who fought or died at the Alamo.

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Joe was a stalwart defender alongside Travis and other Texians. When the din of the fighting died down and the Mexicans firmly controlled the fort, Joe was shot and bayoneted, only to be saved by a Mexican field officer. Because Joe could speak Spanish, he was able to be interrogated afterward.

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History

This was Israel's plan to go to war with Iran in 2011

For Israel, a simple threat was all the provocation necessary to prepare for war — even if that meant a first strike. After all, Israel did it to great success in the 1967 Six-Day War with Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Iraq, and Lebanon.

Times were a lot more tense at this point for Iranian-Israeli relations (if you can picture that). The President of Iran, at the time, was the fiercely anti-Israel Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who infamously associated with the idea of Israel "being wiped off the map" and later described the Holocaust as a "myth."

Israel doesn't take kindly to this kind of talk.

Also, Ahmadinejad has the world's most punchable face.

According to old Israeli spymaster Tamir Pardo, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the Israel Defence Forces to be ready to launch an attack on Iran with as little as 15 days' notice. Pardo knew there were only two reasons to give such an order: to actually attack or to make someone take notice that your forces are mobilizing.

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