--- title: "The Vietnam War draft wasn’t as random as you think" description: "The Vietnam War draft wasn't random, according to the math; The lower the draft number, the higher the possibility of being drafted." date: "2022-02-08" modified: "2023-02-05" authors: - name: "Blake Stilwell" job_title: "Editor-In-Chief, Air Force Veteran" link: "https://www.wearethemighty.com/authors/blake/" url: "https://www.wearethemighty.com/mighty-history/how-the-vietnam-draft-wasnt-as-random-as-you-think/" categories: - "History" - "Vietnam War" - "War History" tags: - "Military History" - "Vietnam War" --- # The Vietnam War draft wasn’t as random as you think ![View of American soldiers of 7th Marine Regiment as they march along a dirt road, Cape Batangan, Vietnam, 1965. A pair of tanks drive beside them.]() *U.S. Marines march along a dirt road near Cape Batangan, South Vietnam, 1965. (Paul Schutzer)* December 1969 was not a very merry Christmastime for many American families. The war in Vietnam was ramping up, and the [draft lottery was held for the first time](). Some 366 blue capsules were drawn, each containing a day of the year. Each calendar date was assigned a number based on draw order. The lower the draft number, the higher the possibility of being drafted. **Also Read: **[6 reasons why you won’t be drafted, even if we bring back the draft]()**** Conscription in the United States was common, especially during wartime. It had been a part of American life since the Civil War, and continued through World War I and World War II. It wasn't until 1975 that the draft ended and the U.S. military became an all-volunteer force. But back in 1970, one Ph.D. student in computer planning saw the "random" Vietnam draft lottery as flawed—mathematically flawed. [According to a *New York Times* article from the period](), he wasn't the only one. Mathematicians and statisticians challenged the legality of the process, as it did not produce a truly random result. As the Times' article points out, hundreds of thousands of men were already preparing for service in Vietnam. The Nixon White House and the U.S. military claimed they made every effort to produce a random result, one as fair as possible. Pentagon experts, at the time, estimated that anyone with a number over 200 was unlikely to get drafted. ![Soldiers from vietnam draft]() *(U.S. Army)* Experts said the resulting monthly average could have been predicted if the capsules containing the earlier dates in the month were at the bottom and the later dates were at the top, and the capsules were not adequately mixed, which is exactly what happened. David Stodolosky, the aforementioned Ph.D. student, is the one who filed a suit against the Selective Service System, based on the findings that the drawing wasn't truly random. His lawyers argued that President Nixon's orders called for a random draft, and that wasn't what they got. His argument was that later [birthdates were drawn much earlier than others]() and, thus, were more likely to be drafted for wartime service. The student tried to get an injunction against the government pressing men into service until the draft lottery process was truly randomized—a task as simple as attaching numbers to dates using a random number table and then sorting them. A judge refused the injunction. Besides, a live lottery [made for a much better show](). ## Author Blake Stilwell is We Are The Mighty's Editor-in-Chief, covering military news, entertainment, and history, along with veteran education, employment and entrepreneurship. He is a former U.S. Air Force combat cameraman with degrees in Graphic Design, Television and Film, International Relations, Public Relations, Business Management and Middle Eastern Affairs. After leaving the military, he began working in film and television production in New York and Los Angeles, work that included ABC News, NBC Olympics, and HBO Sports. He then spent two years in Washington with White House Communications, before joining the Near East Foundation. At NEF he served as an International Development Fellow, then Communications Officer, and finally, Media Officer for the Middle East and Africa. Based in the Palestinian Territory, he coordinated strategic communications between eight country offices, international media, and government and NGO partners. He began a career focused on writing and editing in 2015 with We Are The Mighty. He left in 2019 for Military.com, but returned as Editor-in-Chief in 2025. Blake’s work has been seen on CBS News, Fox News, CBC, The Chicago Tribune, Task & Purpose, Military Times, Recoil, Skillset, American History, and was shockingly even used in a Supreme Court argument. He is an avid traveler and small business owner in Ohio, where he spends most of his energy fixing up a very old house. ### Author social links [Facebook]() [Twitter]() [Instagram]() [LinkedIn]()