Russia announces a new plane that might already be obsolete
The CEO of the Russian MiG corporation said on Aug. 17, 2018, that work on an experimental design for a MiG-41 fifth-generation interceptor will begin "in the immediate future."
"No, this is not a mythical project, this is a long-standing project for the MiG and now we are carrying out intensive work under the aegis of the [the United Aircraft Corporation] and will present it to the public soon," Ilya Tarasenko said, according to TASS, a Russian state-owned media outlet.
The MiG-41, or Prospective Aviation Complex of Long-Range Interception, would be the successor to the speedy fourth-generation MiG-31 interceptor, which was known to have chased away SR-71 Blackbirds.
Tarasenko, who previously claimed that the MiG-41 would be able to "operate in space," a highly unlikely prospect, also said that the MiG-41s are expected to start being delivered to the Russia military in the mid-2020s.
But Vasily Kashin, a Russian defense analyst at Moscow's Higher School of Economics, told The National Interest in 2017 that he thought the MiG-41 wouldn't fly until the mid-2020s, and wouldn't be delivered to the Russian Air Force until 2035-2040.
An SR-71B "Blackbird" over the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California in 1994.
"I don't hold out much hope for an even less proven design concept to make it into series production anytime soon," Justin Bronk, a combat-aviation expert at the Royal United Services Institute, told Business Insider in an email.
"The Mig-31BM is already a highly capable interceptor platform and there are plans for a second modernisation upgrade of what is a relatively new aircraft for a very specific Russian territorial defence requirement," Bronk said.
And given that the T-14 Armata tank and Su-57 stealth fighter "have had series production cancelled recently," Bronk said, "my take is, 'I'll believe it when I see it,' and will remain extremely skeptical until that point."
But "never say never I suppose," Bronk added.
Richard L. Aboulafia, Vice President of Analysis at Teal Group, told Business Insider that Tarasenko's announcement "keeps the idea alive, and you never know, even a chance in a 100 is better than no chance at all."
"It also, of course, doesn't hurt in sales campaigns for current generation planes, like the [MiG-29SM]," Aboulafia said. "In other words, people don't like buying fighter planes from a company with no future."
Aboulafia also said that the idea of creating a pure next-generation interceptor is like "living in the past" since surface-to-air missiles "are generally a better way of intercepting things."
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