The M14 rifle replaced the venerable M1 Garand in 1957 and infamously served as the primary U.S. service rifle for only five years before it was replaced by the M16 rifle. In 2022, the Army selected the SIG Sauer XM5 rifle, later redesignated the M7, to replace the M4 carbine that evolved from the M16.
Designed to increase lethality and precision at long range, troops took issue with the M7’s heavy weight and the reduced ammunition capacity of its 6.8x51mm cartridge.
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In 2026, just four years after SIG was awarded a 10-year contract, the Army appears to have ditched the M7 in favor of the lighter and more compact XM8 carbine with the possibility of a larger magazine.
The Army took delivery of the first batch of XM8s on April 3, 2026. At 3.5 inches shorter and over a pound lighter than the M7, the new carbine was described as a lightweight variant of the original rifle. While the Army’s announcement at the time made no mention of the XM8 replacing the M7, it did note that the XM8 “is set to replace the M4A1 carbine for Soldiers in the Close Combat Force.” a
Despite being heavier and carrying less ammo than the M4, this is exactly what the M7 was adopted to do. So, what’s happening with the M7?
In the Department of War’s FY27 budget request, the military asks for $382.3 million to fund the Next Generation Squad Weapon program. While the NGSW funding includes the purchase of 14,944 XM8s, it does not request any more M7s.
David Patterson Jr., public affairs director for the Army’s Capability Program Executive-Ground (CPE-G), confirmed to Task & Purpose that the Army has not purchased any M7s in FY26, dating back to October 1, 2025.
“The [M7] production line has changed to the XM8,” Patterson told Task & Purpose.
Despite this ambiguity, Jane’s INTEL reporter Amaël Kotlarski confirmed with SIG and Army officers that the roughly 50,000 M7 that have been delivered will eventually be replaced by the M8. Promotional footage by SIG Sauer shows the XM8 production line with weapons already marked “M8 Carbine,” suggesting that the Army will soon drop the weapon’s experimental designation.
Despite the improvements over the M7, the XM8 still has shortcomings—and the Army seems to know this.
On CPE-G’s equipment portfolio page for the XM8, it lists the weapon as weighing 7.3 pounds empty and notes that it is “now the same weight as an M4A1.” However, CPE-G fails to list how much the XM8 weighs loaded and with its suppressor, as a soldier will be expected to carry it.
In fairness, CPE-G admits that the XM8 weighs 8.8 pounds with its suppressor and heat shield. In contrast, CPE-G lists the weight of the M4A1 as 7.62 pounds with sling and loaded magazine (that’s a standard 30-round mag compared to the M7’s 20 or XM8’s proposed 25).
Further complicating the XM8, and NGSW program as a whole, is its proprietary 6.8x51mm ammo. Unconfirmed reports out of the Lake City Army Ammunition Plant where it is made note that separations of the cartridge’s bi-metal hybrid case persist.
Meanwhile, Special Operations Command appears to be working on an XM8 replacement with the Hypervelocity Improved Capability Assault Rifle. Like the Marine Corps, SOCOM has not adopted the M7 rifle, XM8 carbine, or M250 machine gun. Instead, the command issued a solicitation for an improved rifle built on the M4 platform with performance requirements similar to the NGSW program, while retaining interoperability with existing ammunition stockpiles and NATO allies.
Patterson noted that future M7 purchases are “pre-decisional.” In other words, the Army either doesn’t know or knows and won’t say, contradicting what Kotlarski was told.
It’s likely that the M7 will continue to serve alongside the more compact XM8 like the M16 did as the M4 was fielded more widely, but further acquisition remains unclear. Someone should get a Kalshi market going on the future of the XM8, M7, and NGSW program as a whole. It would be interesting to see if the retired generals who now work for SIG Sauer place bets.
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