Time will tell whether the Invasion of Kursk will be a masterstroke, a blunder or a wash. But some of Ukraine’s international boosters, especially in the United Kingdom and Lithuania, are warning that the West is hamstringing Ukraine through delivery delays and weapons restrictions.
Ukraine is reportedly digging into Russia, selecting which territory it will hold in Kursk and which it will give up as undefendable since its advance has largely stalled. And its use of forces to invade Russia, instead of reinforcing defenses in the east, has allowed Russia to push a salient toward Pokrovsk. Russian forces are within 10 miles of the major Ukrainian logistics node, per LiveUAMap and Institute for the Study of War interactive maps, as of August 30. That means Russian howitzers can fire their standard rounds from fairly safe distances and still degrade Ukraine’s logistics.
So what’s happening and why can’t Ukraine fix the situation with their longer-range and more powerful Western weapons? There are two major issues that both got coverage at the end of August: permissions and deliveries.
Permissions
First, the famous ATACMS that Ukraine spent over a year asking for before receiving. When America delivered the first batch of missiles in secret on October 2023, it allowed for epic strikes on Russian airfields and the destruction of nine helicopters at two airfields. But the U.S. has maintained strict rules around ATACMS use: No strikes into territory that was Russian before the 2014 invasion of Crimea.
So, even though ATACMS represents some of the longest-ranged artillery that Ukraine has, it can’t use any of them to strike the major training, logistics, and command and control nodes making the push toward Pokrovsk or the defense of Kursk possible. The Institute for the Study of War, confirming the work of Twitter users @Archer83Able and @breakingcraft, says that at least 245 valid Russian targets are within range of the missiles but off limits to Ukrainian forces.
Meanwhile, Britain has reportedly asked the U.S. and France to greenlight Storm Shadow missile strikes in Russia, but those are also off-limits. (The U.K. donated the missiles, but some of the technology in the missiles and intelligence needed to hit the targets are controlled by the U.S. and France, so Ukraine needs permission from all three countries to conduct strikes.) Storm Shadow, also known as SCALP EG, missiles are fired from planes and can reach almost twice the range of ATACMS. That range is limited from Ukraine, though, because their jets typically launch from lower altitudes to avoid Russian air defenses, but Storm Shadow should be able to hit at least as many targets, and potentially more, than ATACMS.
But neither missile will take out any of those 245 targets unless the U.S. gives permission or Ukraine goes rogue. But there’s another challenge for Ukraine: They haven’t received much of the promised aid, especially additional missile ammunition, promised this year.
Delivery delays
America is, by far, the largest single donor to Ukraine with over $100 billion allocated and pledged. Europe, combined, has done more with over $200 billion allocated and pledged, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. (If you break it down as a percentage of GDP, though, Denmark and the Baltic States are the clear heroes, all contributing over 1% of GDP to Ukraine aid.)
Not all of that is military aid, and there’s a problem with the military aid that is promised: much of it is seriously delayed at any one time.
According to the Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, there have been no new deliveries of Western aid to Ukraine since June, despite a backlog of promised aid. Part of the delay is that many weapons promised to Ukraine have been in storage and need extensive repairs. He said some weapons promised in 2023 are scheduled for delivery in 2027.
Of course, even if Ukraine wins and does so before 2027, it will need to rebuild its arsenal to deter future Russian aggression. But that’s cold comfort to the Ukrainian soldier currently slogging through Kursk or standing strong outside Pokrovsk.
Every delivery delay and string attached to aid benefits one man: Vladimir Putin, who will drag out this war for as long as he can to stay in power and prevent a reckoning with his own people.