This author, for one, doesn’t think the current peace talks will end the war in Ukraine. Honestly, I’d be excited if they brought about another cease-fire.
But if the talks result in peace, then a few interesting things will happen all at once. Most importantly, Ukrainians would be able to breathe relatively freely for the first time since the 2022 Russian invasion. Also, the largest peacekeeping force in recent memory would swing into place in Ukraine. Since European and American relations are so tense right now, that could be an interesting operation to watch. Are European militaries ready to deploy a robust peacekeeping force with little or no American involvement?
But, for what we’re talking about here, some of the world’s most battle-tested drones could suddenly become available for Western militaries.
Drone warfare in Russia and Ukraine has reached a deafening crescendo. The two sides each send literally hundreds of drones per day at one another. Russia is even starting a new section of its armed forces dedicated entirely to drone warfare, and it expects to put 210,000 men into it, about a sixth of its armed forces. The drone forces, by personnel, would rank above the Russian air force (165,000 personnel) but below the Russian navy (270,000 personnel).
Ukraine, meanwhile, has innovated its drone production in just three years to the point that it’s now a world leader. Despite being under constant attack, the Ukrainian defense industry can now produce drones entirely within their own borders, from raw materials to exploding over a Russian-held position. And their drones are good, with Ukrainian FPV and naval drones, especially, catching the attention of other militaries.
And so, if the war ends, expect NATO to quickly move in and try to cut deals for Ukrainian technology and designs and for arms manufacturers in allied countries to offer production and technology-sharing deals to export more Ukrainian designs.
Are Ukraine’s drones the future?
Drones like those common in Ukraine right now are definitely a part of future, but they may be a smaller part of future combat than they have been in Ukraine.
The first thing to keep in mind is that, during major changes in warfare, it takes a while for a new normal to emerge. The first ironclads clashed at the Battle of Hampton Roads in the U.S. Civil War and neither ship could seriously harm the other. Then in the Battle of Lissa in 1866, ironclad fleets fought each other for the first time, and the most impactful tactic in that battle was to ram your opponents. So fleets, for decades, ensured that most of their warships had rams. But in World War I, it became clear that naval artillery was the most effective use of most metal warships, even as carriers emerged as a dominant platform.
So it’s early to say that what worked in Ukraine will emerge as the dominant play everywhere else. Would America’s laser platoons negate a drone swarm? What about dog-fighting drones? Extensive use of netting?
The other thing to keep in mind is that Ukraine uses drones so widely because it’s short artillery and airpower. Ryan McBeth has a great video on this. I personally think that drones are so disruptive to an enemy’s actions that they will be a major part of warfare for a long time, but Ryan makes the great point that you kill a few people with a drone, but an artillery crew or fighter-bomber can kill by the bushel.
So we should expect drones to be part of future warfare, but it’s not-at-all certain that Ukrainian-type drones will be fired by the hundreds or thousands in the future.
What does Ukraine’s drone tech get you?
Ukraine is constantly iterating on their drones, and their designs are getting more and more sophisticated, to the point that we now need truly elite drone operators to keep up.
The most-modern drones in Ukraine for both sides now use fiber-optic wire to connect to the operator. This makes it impossible to jam them, but it also means that operators have to keep in mind the exact path they have flown and what potential entanglements there are. They also have to move fast, since an enemy operator could spot the wire and send a drone or strike against them.
Also, Ukraine has turned from small, cheap drones to complex drone systems. Some drone operators work in swarms, with multiple operators flying together like a tiny air wing. Or some air or water drones are operating as carriers for smaller drones. So a large surface water drone can navigate close to a target and keep the smaller drones fully charged or fueled until it’s close. Then the smaller drones streak to their targets.
And Ukraine has new drones that pack tight, can be assembled quickly, and strike targets with 250 pounds of explosives.
And Ukraine even has full-fledged bombers, now, drones that can carry 550-pound bombs, drop them, and return.
All of these specialized designs, born out of necessity because of the demands of war, will be coveted by foreign militaries and defense manufacturers who want battle-tested elements in their designs. Expect Europe, especially, to be at the front of the line. They need to revamp their militaries to face a battle-tested Russia. And Ukraine will be grateful to them for the deep donations and other support.
What will this do for Ukraine?
Of course, what will hopefully happen is that Ukraine’s innovation will make it an essential partner to NATO militaries. If the Ukrainian drone industry can become a major part of NATO security architecture, then it increases the chance that other militaries see Ukraine’s survival as essential to their security.
It would also create a large, export-focused industry that could bring lots of hard currency back into Ukraine. I’m sure the National Bank of Ukraine would love a steady flow of hard currency as it transitions to paying off the war debt. The country now owes about $160 billion, with $60 billion having been accrued in just the last three years.
And, hopefully, it would allow Ukraine to create a large enough “screw off” stick to keep Russia in its yard for good. Russia started this war in 2014, by choice. It expanded the war in 2022, by choice. And for Ukraine to find a lasting peace, they have to make sure that Russia never again feels comfortable making that choice.