Why the first draft of the Afghan Peace Accord might be a terrible deal
After almost two decades of nonstop war, the United States and the Taliban have agreed to a draft framework for a peace deal to end the fighting there.
For the United States, I mean.
For now, that is.
"This is ... how you say... the worst trade deal in the history of trade deals, maybe ever."
America's chief negotiator with the Taliban is Zalmay Khalilzad, who got torn a new one in the global press by Afghanistan's national security advisor, Hamdullah Mohib. Mohib accused Khalilzad of trying to usurp power in the country by installing himself as a viceroy of a caretaker government. This caused the United States to demand an apology that never came.
Now Mohib, the only member of the Afghan government involved in talks with the Taliban, is being "frozen out." Now that a draft agreement is in place, we know it's an agreement that no Afghan official helped negotiate. Members of the Afghan government won't even be allowed to sit at the table until they finalize this draft agreement.
Afghanistan is adorable.
For the internationally-recognized government of Afghanistan, the removal of American troops would be a disaster if done today. The Government only controls just under two-thirds of the population and just over half of the country's administrative districts, according to a January 2019 report from the military's Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction.
In reply, the Pentagon sent out a statement refuting its own report: "Measures of population control are not indicative of effectiveness of the South Asia strategy or of progress toward security and stability in Afghanistan."
Afghanistan's army is losing soldiers at a rate of some 3,000 or more per month, due to desertions and ending reenlistments. It is currently at 87 percent strength and falling fast – because they get killed at an alarming rate.
Maybe China will do it better.
In exchange for the United States agreeing to a timetable withdrawal, the Taliban has agreed not to let Afghanistan become a hub for international terrorism, as it was in the days before the September 11th attacks on the United States. But the Taliban's promises are problematic from the start – every leader of al-Qaeda has declared the leader of the Taliban to be the "Emir of the Faithful," the mujaheddin equivalent of Caliph.
Osama bin Laden named Taliban founder Mullah Mohammed Omar the Emir. When those two died, their successors, Ayman al-Zawahiri and Mullah Aktar Mansour, recognized each other's leadership. Mansour died in an airstrike in 2016 and his replacement, Mawlawi Hibatullah Akhundzada, was named Emir by Zawahiri. You can't really have one without the other.
But they promised. Is that good enough?